Housing market subdued

Subdued. That’s how Fannie Mae’s chief economist describes consumer sentiment toward the housing market, as recorded in the enterprise’s latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI).

To which I respond…. “Oh, really? I hadn’t noticed.”

For those of us in the real estate industry, it is pretty obvious the market is subdued. I get it. Home prices are high and not substantially coming down (if at all depending on your market area). Also rates remain stubbornly high compared to the past few years. It is easy to see how the market got subdued.

While the index increased in January for the third-consecutive month, it remained well below its pre-pandemic high.

One thing to note about this index, it looks at past actions/sentiment. The recent reading from early March included data collected in January. Meaning, the data is five weeks old at its time of release.

Something changed in late February and March. My phone began ringing more often. My clients are making offers on homes with multiple offers. A more “real time” analysis seems to show the market gaining some momentum. Perhaps rates jump over 7% again (they’ve tested 7% twice in the past several months, and both times moved back below 7% rather quickly) or another bank crashes and people get really nervous. It’s quite an interesting time out there!

Even with all of this happening, the Spring market is here. More people are out looking, and competition for the limited number of homes out there is beginning to increase. I’ll be interested to see the HSPI numbers later this year once we have the figures for March and April.

For those of you looking to purchase a home in the state of Georgia, contact me today! I can get you ready to make an offer in just a few minutes, and work toward getting your loan pre-underwritten to make your offer stronger in an increasingly crowded market.

Mortgage rates find their range

It feels as if mortgage rates have found a comfortable range to move back-and-forth in, for now. Let’s talk about mortgage rates, how they change, and why I feel as if they’ve “found a range.”

Mortgage rates may change everyday. Sometimes they may change more than once per day. Mortgage rates behave differently then other rates. For example:

• the Federal Funds Rate remains static unless it is changed by the Federal Reserve (and wow, it has changed a lot over the past year).
• Prime Rate moves based on the Federal Funds Rate. It doesn’t change unless the Feds make a move.
• Savings/CD rates typically increase/decrease on the Federal Funds Rate changes too.

From those examples, it is easy to see how the Federal Reserve and their Federal Funds Rates drives a lot of the rates out there (I didn’t even get into credit card and car rates). Mortgage rates move on a daily basis. Their values (up or down) move more like stocks on a day to day basis… some days they go up a bit, then down a bit, and sometimes up and down in the same day.

Mortgage rates move on bond values. As those values change, so do mortgage rates (and as previously stated, change day to day and sometimes more than once a day).

With the knowledge mortgages rates do not behave like other rates and can change often, they usually find a comfortable “range” to float and up and down in until something (economic data, recession, high inflation) moves them out of it.

I feel the mortgage rate range is moving in the low to high 6s… say 6.25-6.75. Why am I making this statement? When mortgage rates went over 7% several months ago, they immediately began to improve. When rates touched a little under 6% not so long ago, they immediately got worse. In both directions, they changed pretty quickly until they feel back into this 6.25-6.75% range and then slowly moved back and forth.

Which puts us… in the 6s for now. If the economy does enter a recession, expect mortgage rates to improve and move under 6%. If inflation jumps back up, expect rates to get into the 7s again. Depending on who you read, there is talk of inflation stagnating/not improving along with many saying a recession is right around the corner. It feels as if a lot can happen in 2023.

So here we are, possibly in the 6.25-6.75% “eye of the economic storm” for 2023.

FHA finally makes a change to mortgage insurance

FHA finally reduces the amount borrowers will pay on a monthly basis for mortgage insurance. This is something the writers here at The Mortgage Blog have clamored about for years now. What exactly did FHA do?

The change is the amount borrowers pay on a monthly basis. Assuming a borrower makes the minimum down payment, the annual premium is 0.85% (or 0.0085) of the loan amount. Then divide that figure by 12 for the monthly amount. The new figure for those making the minimum down payment drops to 0.55%…. a 30 basis point reduction.

Per the announcement, FHA expects this to save borrowers, on average, $800 per year. Some quick examples:

• Using rough numbers, a purchase price at $300,000 would save about $600 per year
• A purchase price of $350,000 would save close to $1,000 per year.

The $800 on average makes sense when looking at homes over $300,000.

FHA mortgage insurance is different than conventional in that the coverage amount (0.55%) is the same regardless of the credit score of the borrower. Mortgage insurance on conventional loans change depending on borrower’s credit score and the amount of the down payment. There are two situations where FHA mortgage insurance changes:

• When making a 5% down payment (and not the minimum 3.5% down), the mortgage insurance drops to 0.50%
• When making a 10% (or larger) down payment, the mortgage insurance premium stays the same, but the borrower no longer pays mortgage insurance on a monthly basis after 11 years.
• In my 17 years in the mortgage industry, I’ve rarely had anyone get an FHA loan with a larger down payment. Almost everyone goes with the 3.5% option, so the mortgage insurance is fixed at 0.55% for the life of the loan.

The “permanent” state of the mortgage insurance is what I would like to see changed. Conventional loans eventually drop their mortgage insurance coverage. I think it should be the same for FHA loans too. There is no reason why someone should still be paying mortgage insurance after 11 years when they have a lot of equity in the home.

Yet beggars can’t be choosers. FHA mortgage insurance premiums were set at 0.85% and permanent for many, many years now. Hopefully this is a first step (and needed change), and maybe soon it can also go from “permanent” to 11 years max payment on mortgage insurance. One can dream!

When will the housing shortage end?

Isn’t that the million dollar question? I wish I knew the exact answer. A safe answer is not in the next couple of years.

I’ve talked a lot about the lack of homes for sale. The same issue is in the rental market too. Reflecting the unprecedented housing shortages across the United States in the post-pandemic market, U.S. vacancy rates hit their lowest readings in decades in 2021. According to NAHB’s analysis of the 2021 American Community Survey (ACS), rental vacancy rates reached a new low of 5.2%, the lowest levels recorded by the ACS since the survey started generating these data in 2005.

Additionally, NAHB’s forecast indicates the balancing of the market will take years to correct itself, and will take place between 2025 and 2030. Even on their short term projection, it is still two years away.

If the rental market is stretched, and we’ve already discussed the shortage of homes being built/for sale in my February series, what should a buyer expect in 2023? Glad the question was asked 🙂

Realtor.com 2023 housing forecast says 2023 will offer buyers less competition on the number of for-sale homes. Compared to the wild ride of the past two years, 2023 will be a slower-paced housing market, which means drastic shifts like price declines may not happen (if at all) as quickly as some have anticipated.

Going back to the Zillow report referenced in my first post this month, it noted, while national home value declines from peak levels have been minimal, some markets have seen significant changes. Atlanta isn’t one of those markets. People are still moving into metro Atlanta, and there are not enough homes to buy for the number of people wanting to own homes in this market. Our housing prices have a floor, so there is no need to fear a 2008 home value crash.

In all of my posts, we are seeing a trend. The housing crunch isn’t changing in the next few years, more buyers will enter the metro Atlanta housing market as the US population continues to move to the southeast, housing prices have a “built in” floor due to supply and demand… the only thing different from the past few years and when the market heats up again is the competition… or lack thereof. Those who got out of the market and quit trying to buy will find it very different now in this cooled/fewer looking for homes market.

I remember speaking with someone is March 2020 saying they wanted to wait until the summer to get a really good deal as the housing market collapsed from Covid. I advised him if he wanted a good deal, he needed to purchase a home in March or April. Why? My thought process then was there was nothing wrong with the economy. When things open up and go back to normal in a month or two, home prices will go back to where they were and we will pick back up where we left off. Other than me being wildly optimistic on when life would go back to normal, when the economy opened up, the “deals” were gone.

I feel we are in a similar window now with fewer buyers making offers on homes. My clients are getting under contract with time for due diligence, appraisal/financing contingencies, the seller giving money for closing costs, and even contingencies to sell a home prior to buying the new home! This is as close to a “buyer’s” market we will see until the housing inventory issue sorts itself out, which is forecast to be years down the road.

Next month – new topics. Promise!

If you’ve read these posts and decided now is the time to buy before everyone else jumps back into the housing market, contact me today (see my banner above for contact info). I’ll get you ready to make offers on homes in no time!

2023 is not like 2008

Another housing crash weighs on a lot of people’s minds. Sharply rising mortgage rates, a steep decline in home sales and a record price appreciation slowdown have raised concerns that the housing market could crash. I get the logic, yet experts argue that these market trends are a symptom of a correction after two years of massive growth.

I wouldn’t expect 2023 to be like 2008. For one, something as extreme as 2008 only occurred twice in the past 100 years…. the first was the Great Depression in the 1930s. The second was the Great Recession beginning in 2008. The housing market and overall economy is completely different now versus 2008.

There are two huge differences:

• Risky mortgages created an environment where people could buy more home than they could afford to pay. If people lost their jobs (and they did), it created a vicious feedback loop a cooling market/declining value market + more foreclosures = more declines in home values (and this cycle kept repeating itself).
• In 2008, there was a glut of housing inventory. For once, too many homes were being built. This is the opposite problem we have today with housing inventory levels in Atlanta hovering around 3 months (ideal amount is 6 months to create a balanced market).

There are also too many people who do not own a home that want to buy a home. The housing glut in the 2000s was followed by close to a decade of under-building that contributed to a shortage of millions homes today. This was exacerbated by millennials coming of age near the end of this period of underproduction along with Boomers not downsizing as previous generations did (moving in with extended family, or to retirement communities, or to assisting living/nursing homes). The lack of homes along with the housing needs of the two largest generations in the history of this country (one looking to buy their first homes and the other not selling their homes) should put a floor on home prices.

While 2023 isn’t like 2008, 2024 could be like 2020- 2021. When the national media begins talking about “now being a great time to buy a home,” we’ll see a similar situation as we did during the peak buying years of the pandemic. This is why I keep harping on now being a great time to buy. Purchasing a home now with fewer competitors – even with a slight decline in home values – will be much better than double digit offers, over asking price offers, no contingencies, etc. as we are likely to see the next time it is ” a good time” to buy.

If you are thinking, “maybe 2023 is a good time to buy,” contact me today (see my banner above for contact info). We can get started in just a few minutes and get you pre-approved for the offer on your new home!

Home prices stabilizing

I started the year saying now is a great time to buy a home. For the month of February, I’ll include a series of posts expanding on this thought process. We’ll touch on affordability, housing prices, and the shortage of homes.

Let’s start with affordability. Zillow, Seattle, said U.S. home values are easing down, starting to provide relief for potential home buyers facing affordability challenges. Zillow reported the typical U.S. home fell to $357,733 in November, and is now down 0.5% from the peak peak last year.

Add on the fact mortgages rates improved to end 2022/start 2023, monthly costs for home ownership went down for the first time since July, and for only the second time in the past 19 months.  

We are not at a point of home prices dropping (more on this in the next post). But for the first time in several years, we aren’t seeing double digit appreciation.

Zillow Senior Economist Jeff Tucker said November’s news is a positive sign that affordability may at least stabilize in 2023, helping households budget and plan for housing decisions in the months and years ahead. Tucker said, “The two big questions are whether mortgage rates will continue to decline, and whether that will be enough to bring buyers back in time for the spring selling season. In the meantime, those on the prowl for a house will benefit from motivated sellers, unusual bargains and a welcome lack of competition.”

As I said to start the year, the articles saying 2023 is a bad time to purchase a home aren’t talking about the lack of competition. The quote from Zillow’s Senior Economist is spot on for those who are looking, and they are seeing contingencies, sellers doing repairs on homes, and seller concessions.

Beginning to think 2023 may be a good time to buy a home? If you are buying in the state of Georgia, contact me today! I can get you pre-approved quickly and have you out making offers in no time!

First time home buyers are back

First-time homebuyers have returned to the housing market. The share of buyers purchasing a home for the first time rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, now representing 45% of all buyers (up from 37% in 2021 per Zillow’s 2022 Consumer Housing Trends Report).

This is primarily attributed to a cooling market, allowing new buyers to survey their housing options. The share of first-time buyers plummeted during the pandemic, as first-time buyers lost out to older, repeat buyers who were able to tap the equity in their existing homes and use cash to make a stronger offer.

This also feeds into my post from last week… less competition for homes makes it easier for first time home buyers to get into their own home!

“First-time buyers now appear to be making relative gains as high mortgage interest rates disproportionately encourage current homeowners to stay put,” said Manny Garcia, a Zillow population scientist. “While rising mortgage rates are hurting affordability for all buyers, first-time buyers may be less deterred by higher rates because they’re comparing a monthly mortgage payment to what they’re paying in rent.”

As mentioned countless times on this blog, it is definitely cheaper to own than rent in Georgia!

A downside to this? While there are fewer buyers overall, first-time buyers may find more competition for starter homes. This trend will only worsen as the mood shifts to it being a “good time to buy a home.” No one knows when the sentiment will shift, but it will. Just look at how quickly the market cooled. Homes were flying off the market and then precipitously dropped from May to July. The housing market will come roaring back once people believe it is a good time to buy.

Given the current market, it is a good time to get ahead of the curve. Mortgage rates are higher now than in early 2022, but inventory levels are still tight. This means now is a great time to buy a home as the competition is lower than normal. If you are buying in the state of Georgia, contact me today. I can get you ready to make an offer on a home in just a few minutes!

Now is a great time to buy a home!

Happy New Year! Yes, 2023 is a great time to purchase a home. I am well aware if you do a search for “is now a good time to buy a home?,” one is likely to find plenty of articles saying now is a bad time to purchase. While there are many good points in these articles (I’ve read a lot of them), they all seem to be missing one important thing…

Competition.

Or perhaps I should say, the lack of competition.

Follow with me for a moment… in 2020-2021, the market was crazy. Sellers were receiving 5, 10, 20+ offers on a home (one agent I know received over 100 on a listing!). The offers were always over (sometimes way over!) asking price. Every offer waived some contingencies, and most waived all of them. This means the buyer had no protection on their earnest money and had to buy the home “as is,” or forfeit their earnest money if they decided not to buy the home.

This isn’t a great way to buy a home. As we moved into mid and late 2022, the market shifted. Yes, there are still multiple offers on homes. Yet it is only a few offers on most homes. Properties are going under contract at/around list price, and buyers are getting contingencies on their contracts (not to mention sellers giving money to closing costs!).

There are many reasons to consider waiting to buy a home (rates are higher, home prices are high, inventory levels are low, a looming recession). Why should someone consider buying right now? To me, it is simply competition…

Many would-be buyers will sit this spring market out because everything they read says “now is a bad time to buy a home.” Let’s say the stories change this time next year. For example, prices have leveled out, mortgage rates have lowered, so 2024 is a great time to buy. Do you know what that means? Competition will be fierce! Buyers in my “spring market 2024” example would include:

• Everyone who decided to push off buying a home in 2023 because it “isn’t a good time to buy a home.”
• Everyone who planned on buying a home in 2024.
• Some who planned to buy in 2025 or 2026 and decided to move up their timeline because “now is a good time to buy a home.”

When the mood shifts to now being a “great time to buy a home,” inventory levels will still be low. The supply-and-demand dynamics dragging inventory levels (too many buyers and too few homes available) isn’t going away anytime soon. The market will resemble to craziness of 2020-mid 2022.

Yes, mortgage rates are higher, but finding the right home is hard. It is way easier to refinance a home you already own versus fighting the crowd to get a home when rates are lower. I’ve bought two homes in my life, and refinanced them both.

Regardless of what is in the news, taking the long term view, now is a great time to buy a home. If you are buying in the state of Georgia, contact me today. I can get you ready to make an offer on a home in just a few minutes!

Working with appraisers

Due to changes in the mortgage process, loan officers are no longer allowed to have direct contact with appraisers. It has been this way for years now. All appraisals are ordered through Appraisal Management Companies (AMC). When a lender has a question or needs something clarified on an appraisal report, all requests are made to the AMC and then relayed to the appraiser.

While loan officers cannot speak directly with an appraiser, real estate agents can. However, more than a quarter of real estate professionals say they avoid having any interaction with an appraiser, falsely believing they legally can’t. Often real estate agents only speak directly with an appraiser when there is a problem, and 19% say they don’t interact with appraisers at all. Of those who don’t interact, most say they avoid contact because they think they’re not legally allowed to speak to the appraiser, or they’re concerned that the interaction might lead to appraisal bias.

However, “regulations allow real estate agents, or other persons with an interest in the real estate transaction, to communicate with the appraiser and provide additional property information, including a copy of the sales contract,” according to NAR’s FAQs on the residential appraisal process.

Real estate pros who do interact with appraisers say they try to provide additional information to help them in their valuation, the survey shows. These pros also may meet with the appraiser onsite to provide comps, a list of improvements made to the property or information on multiple offers.

Working with an appraiser can make a big difference on where the value lands. In this hyper competitive/appreciating market over the past few years, the seller’s agent should speak with the appraiser and provide comps showing how they came up with the price, divulge unique features on the home, and provide details about how competitive the process was for getting the home under contract. The best agents I work with always consult with the appraiser during the appraisal process.

So while I cannot speak with an appraiser, real estate agents can, and should.

It’s no longer just about the jobs report

Until recently, all attention about the direction of the economy focused soley on the jobs report. Analysts made predictions and then analyzed where they got things wrong. Then there is the quarterly growth data (GDP). Together with the jobs report, the markets reacted until the next set of numbers were released.

Now we have another focus, and it involves inflation.

Now analysts are obsessing over the inflation numbers. The Consumer (CPI) and Producer (PPI) price reports are “where it is at” with the regard to influencing the stock and bond markets today. We are even reacting to inflation reports from Europe, because the entire world seems to be in a similar situation.

For example, last week, it was announced that the CPI increased by 7.7% annually, with the core number increasing by 6.3% annually. The core excludes the volatile components of food and energy. Overall, these numbers were seen as better than expected and the stocks and bond markets reacted very positively. Though this is only one month of data, it is hoped that this report represents the beginnings of the improvement we have been waiting for (and the reason for my post last month about the Federal Reserve moving too fast/perhaps need to slow down on rate hikes)

Today, market movement is all about inflation and the wide range of data gives analysts and the Fed plenty to chew upon.