Posts Tagged ‘atlanta real estate market’

Is a Housing Boom Coming?

November 19, 2019

Stephen McBride, a contributor for Forbes magazine, posted an October article titled, “The Biggest Housing Boom In History Has Just Begun.” McBride approaches the subject from an investor perspective, but as someone employed in the home finance world, the article is very relevant to my job.

One of McBride’s sources stated, “The most important driver of home prices is supply and demand.  And right now, there is a chronic undersupply of homes in America.”  Since the late 1950’s, the US has seen an average of 1.5 million homes built annually, according to Census Bureau data.  However, since the Great Recession started in 2008, new home construction has averaged only 900,000 units annually.  That’s a shortfall of 600,000 off the historical annual average for 10 years now.  So we have a cumulative undersupply of 6,000,000 homes relative to historical data.  The article goes on to state, “fewer homes were built in the last decade than any decade since the ’50’s.”

On the demand side, the focus is the Millennial cohort.  The Millennials are the largest generation in American history.  Now the median age of the Millennial cohort is 34.  This historical average age of people buying their first home is 33.  According to the National Association of Realtors, one-third of home buyers are now Millennials.  The article goes on to state that “Every year for the next decade, tens of millions of Millennials will hit home buying age.”

Put these two factors together and you have a tight housing supply coupled with increasing demand.  Supply and demand analysis therefore predicts that home prices will rise.  (This makes me want to buy another house or two!)

I earned my economics degree a long time ago, but the supply and demand basics have not changed.  This appears to be the perfect storm for rising home prices.  And that could mean significant wealth growth for home owners over the next several years.

Want to get into the market now while mortgage rates are near historic lows and before home values start rising quickly again?  Give me a call at Dunwoody Mortgage.  We will get you prequalified quickly and help you close with the best financing for your current situation.  You can buy a home with a minimum 3% to 3.5% down payment and a credit score of 620+.  Now could be the perfect time for you to buy a home.

Home Affordability at its Highest Point in Years

November 1, 2019

According to a recent report by Black Knight, Inc., home affordability reached its best level in years in August 2019.  This follows a consistent decline in home affordability from late 2016 through late 2018.  Home affordability hit a nine-year low in November 2018, as mortgage rates rose to the 5% range.  At that time, the national home payment to income ratio rose to 23.7%.  According to Black Rock, this led to an extended slow down in home price growth.

Since November 2018, mortgage rate declines plus this slower home appreciation has greatly improved home affordability.  The national payment to income ratio has dropped to 20.7%.  This ratio means that the monthly principal and interest (P&I) payment on an average-priced home now requires only 20.7% of the national median income.

Put another way, interest rate declines between November 2018 and August 2019 has increased home buying power by about $46,000. In August 2019, a home buyer would pay the same P&I amount on a $246,000 home mortgage as she would have paid on a $200,000 home mortgage in November 2018.

On the other hand, I found websites and recent articles showing that Atlanta-area rents have risen around 4% in the preceding 12 months.  In short, owning a home in Atlanta has gotten more affordable while renting has gotten more expensive.

Do you rent your home in Georgia?  Has your rent increased making money tight?  Give me a call and let’s talk about mortgage affordability.  You don’t need perfect credit to buy a home, and you will need only a minimum 3% to 3.5% for your down payment.  (Military veterans can obtain VA loans with a 0% down payment.)  With the current low mortgage rates, you might be able to buy more home than you thought you could, for a lower monthly payment than you thought you would have to make.  And with buying a home, you will get the equity / wealth benefits from potential home appreciation.  It’s a GREAT time to buy a home in Georgia!!

Is It Time to Refinance An FHA Mortgage?

October 11, 2019

As discussed previously, using an FHA loan to buy a home makes sense for home buyers with relatively low credit scores and limited down payment funds. FHA loans offer very attractive pricing for these home buyers.

Interest rates have now fallen to their lowest level in three years, so it may be time for current FHA mortgage holders to consider a conventional mortgage refinance. The interest rate savings may not be huge, but changing from FHA mortgage insurance to private mortgage insurance could bring significant financial benefits.

I’m working with a couple now (we’ll call them Jack and Diane) who bought their home in 2017.  At that time, their qualifying credit score was in the mid-600’s and they had just enough cash for the FHA minimum down payment.  This was an ideal scenario for an FHA mortgage.

Fast forward to 2019 – their credit scores have increased and home appreciation in their neighborhood has given them more equity.  A conventional loan now makes sense for their updated situation.  They can refinance to a new interest rate that is just 0.25% less than their current rate.  Normally such a small monthly savings, by itself, does not justify the cost of refinancing.

In addition to the interest rate savings, they will also save money every month with lower mortgage insurance payments.  Switching from their FHA loan to a conventional loan will lower the mortgage insurance monthly premiums by about $120.  Their total monthly savings equal $160, and their refinance has a break-even point of just over two years.  Considering the interest rate savings plus the mortgage insurance savings makes their refinance worthwhile.

An added benefit is that their new private mortgage insurance will cancel in a few years (unlike the FHA insurance which is permanent), increasing their monthly savings to about $200. So, Jack and Diane will realize this bonus savings in just a few years.

Ultimately, home buyers who used an FHA loan two or three years ago may reap big rewards from a conventional refinance now, assuming their property value has increased.

Ron moved into your neighborhood in the last three years or so. At the neighborhood Halloween party, ask Ron if he has heard of an FHA mortgage. If he replies, “Yes, that’s the type of loan I have,” ask him if he would like to lower his monthly payment.  Then connect Ron with me.  We will quickly determine whether moving to a conventional mortgage can help Ron financially.

American Homebuying Power Grows

September 26, 2019

Overall economic circumstances keep improving for potential homebuyers.  First American’s Real House Price Index (RHPI) shows that Americans’ homebuying power increased consistently from January through July 2019.  The index tracks single-family home price changes adjusted for mortgage interest rate changes and personal income changes.

Mortgage interest rates trended downward during the first half of 2019, and they are even lower now compared to mid-year.  First American reported mortgage rates in January were 4.5%, and rates moved into the 3’s over the summer.  Average household income increased over the same time period.

Decreasing mortgage rates combined with increasing household incomes provide a double boost to Americans’ home buying power.  The Index’s “house-buying power” for consumers increased roughly 10% from January through July.  According to First American’s Chief Economist, Mark Fleming, “House-buying power is at the highest it’s been since we began tracking it in 1991.”

That means now is a great time to buy a home!  Even though home prices have been increasing, the decrease in mortgage rates coupled with household income growth make right now the best time to buy a home in almost 30 years, based on the RHPI measures.

Do you have a Georgia friend who complains about a landlord who won’t fix problems?  Let them know that their homebuying power is stronger than it has been in decades, and connect them with me.  I’ll help them obtain the best home mortgage for their unique situation as quickly as possible.  I’ll help your friend take advantage of today’s really low mortgage rates before they increase to 2018 levels or even higher.  Together, we will fire their unresponsive landlord!

Buying a Home Earlier Delivers Long Term Wealth Benefits

May 22, 2019


It is common knowledge that many Millennials are delaying “life milestones.”  A recent study by the Urban Institute shows this by documenting the increase in young adults living with their parents.  People often assume that adults living with parents can save more money, better positioning themselves for a home purchase.  But this study reports that although the intentions are positive, the actual economic results tend to be negative.  The study concludes that adults who lived with their parents between ages 25 and 34 were less likely to form independent households and buy homes 10 years later, as compared with young adults who did not live with their parents.  And this result can negatively impact their future wealth.

The study reported that the percent of young adults living with parents almost doubled between 2000 and 2017 – growing from 11.9% to 22%.  This means 5.6 million more young adults live with parents now.  Reasons for this increase include, but are not limited to (1) Student debt – since 2000, student loan debt has more than tripled.  This debt burden makes it harder for young adults to live independently.  (2) Income – adults with lower incomes are more likely to live with parents.  (3) Housing costs – real rents are at historic highs, making it harder for young adults to live independently.  (4) Below average credit – in 2016, the median credit score was 640 for Millennials and 662 for Gen Xers.

So how does this trend affect young adults over time?  Studies show that home ownership is one of the best tools for building wealth.  And UI reports here that the biggest housing investment returns go to adults who bought homes at younger ages.  The study concludes, “our results suggest that living with parents has negative long-term economic consequences.”

As mentioned in a previous blog post, perhaps many of these young adults believe the many untrue myths that stop people from pursuing home ownership.  The fact is, buying a home with a small down payment, below average credit, and other debt can be easier than many people imagine.

Do you have friends in Georgia whose adult children live with them?  Do you know a young co-worker living with his parents?  Perhaps they fear they cannot buy a home because of below average credit scores or limited available cash.  Since the study shows these young adults may wind up better off financially if they buy a home sooner, refer these people to me.  We at Dunwoody Mortgage will do everything we can to help them buy a home and start building their wealth now, positioning them for a better economic future.

Home Sales Sentiment on the Rise

May 1, 2019

Lower than expected mortgage interest rates in the first four months of 2019 have helped drive Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) to its highest level since June 2018.  Economists and experts have predicted higher mortgage rates for the last few years.  Rates trended higher in 2018 until the stock market volatility happened in November.  Then interest rates declined to below 4.5% and have stayed there for the last few months.  Lower interest rates occurring when potential home buyers expected higher rates translates to great news for home buyers.

HPSI jumped 5.5 points in March to the highest level since last June.  Survey responses considering now a “good time to buy” rose 7% while responses considering now a “good time to sell” rose 13%.  And the study shows that more consumers expect interest rates to decrease further.

Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae stated, “The results further corroborate the positive effect of falling mortgage rates on affordability, which we expect will help support a rebound in home sales.”  Duncan further noted, “job confidence…also continues to support housing sentiment, while income growth perceptions firmed from both prior month and year-ago levels, potentially supporting an uptick in housing demand.”  Ultimately, lower interest rates, job confidence, and growing income expectations are fueling the current housing market.

Personally, I am seeing more interested buyers and homes for sale than I have seen since 2016.  That is a great thing.  Ultimately, with the lower rates and positive overall economic news, now is a great time to buy or sell a home.

Do you have a friend who complains about high rent and an inattentive landlord?  Tell her that now is a great time to fire her landlord and start building equity in her own home.  Then have her call me.  We at Dunwoody Mortgage will deliver outstanding mortgage experience along with these great low mortgage rates.

 

 

The Impact of Student Loans on Home Purchases

March 20, 2019


Homeownership among people aged 24 through 32 declined 9% between 2005 and 2014.  There are many factors contributing to this trend.  One, obviously, was the Great Recession.  With higher unemployment, people underemployed, and people laid off, those in the 24 – 32 age bracket (just coming out of college) found a difficult labor market.  This caused them to delay their home buying plans.  On top of this, the Federal Reserve recently reported that increasing student loan debt has also lowered home ownership in this age group.

Millennials now carry a collective $1.5 trillion in student loan debt.  A recent Bankrate.com study reports that 31% of millennials (aged 23 – 38) have delayed buying a home because of student loan debt.  According to the study, almost 75% of the survey respondents stated that they have delayed major life financial milestones such as getting married, having children, saving for retirement, creating an emergency fund, and buying a car.

Reading studies like this makes it sound as though student loans are preventing people from qualifying for a home loan  Don’t confuse the ability to qualify for a home purchase versus simply putting off buying a home.  They are not the same.  I’ve helped people purchase a home that suits their budget even with student loan debt hitting six figures.  A potential home buyer will make a housing payment.  If they plan to live in one area for several years and have a good job, why not make a mortgage payment and build wealth instead of paying rent?  Again, they will have a housing payment of some kind.


Here are some loan options that may allow people with student loan debt to buy a home now rather than waiting:

  • 3% down Home Ready and Home Possible mortgages.
  • 3.5% down FHA mortgages.
  • 0% down VA mortgages for military veterans.
  • 3% down conventional mortgages.

To me, the report’s most eye-opening statement is this:  77% of millennials with student loan debt would approach college differently if they could go back and change it.  The respondents stated that they would apply for more scholarships or enroll in less expensive universities or colleges.

Do you have a friend or family member who thinks they cannot buy a home due to their student loan debt?  If so, refer them to me.  I will analyze their income and debts relative to all loan programs and help them chart the fastest course to home ownership.  With the many loan programs available, they might be able to buy now.


Homebuyer Economic Analysis

February 20, 2019

Recent economic reports show interesting data and forecasts regarding home buyers.  A survey of 100 economists by Zillow and Pulsenomics, LLC reported that almost 60% believe that home values are more sensitive to changing interest rates than in prior years.  One economist noted that if mortgage rates rise to 5.5%, a home buyer would need a $35,000 lower home price to keep the same monthly payment.  Buyers on tight budgets would have a more limited available home inventory, and others might stretch their budgets rather than lowering their target price.

Even with interest rate uncertainty, a majority of economists surveyed expect increasing first-time buyer activity this year.  These economists forecast that the homeownership rate will climb above its historical average over the next five years.

What is the difference between first-time buyers who actually buy versus those who want to buy, but don’t?  The answer is about $30,000 of annual income.  A recent study by RealEstate.com showed that the first-time home buyers have a $72,500 median income.  Their income is significantly higher than those people who want to buy their first home but do not actually buy.  The latter group earns a $42,500 median income.


This higher income helps buyers in two ways.  Firstly, they can afford larger monthly payments based on underwriting debt to income guidelines.  Secondly, the higher incomes allow these buyers to save more money which they use for down payments and closing costs.  A recent Zillow study reports that first-time buyers make a median 14.5% down payment.

Ultimately, financing a home purchase is challenging for many buyers.  These buyers need a mortgage professional to structure the best loan possible.  The loan structure will determine the interest rate, mortgage insurance, and the amount of home the buyer can purchase.  And special programs exist that offer discounted interest rates with a minimum 3% down payment for home buyers who qualify.  Getting into the best loan program, a slight down payment change, or paying off another debt at closing can help the home buyer save thousands over the loan’s lifetime.  That is a key reason why selecting the right mortgage professional is so important. 

Do you have a friend or relative who wants to buy a home in Georgia?  Refer them to me at Dunwoody Mortgage.  I will help them structure the best loan for their financial situation.


Help With Down Payments

January 23, 2019


Restating the main theme from the prior post, people who want to buy homes do not need “great” credit scores or large down payments.  Home buyers can obtain mortgages with as little as 3.0% down.  What about those people who have not saved enough for the low down payment plus closing costs plus prepaid escrow?  Do they have any options to help cover their required cash to close?  The answer is, “YES!” Here are some options for cash-strapped buyers:

  • Request that the seller contribute cash at closing to help cover the closing costs and prepaid escrow.  Mortgage guidelines allow the seller to contribute specific percentages of the home sale price to cover transaction costs and escrow, but not the down payment.  If the buyer’s agent can negotiate that the seller helps cover these items, then it can be done within the guidelines.  The greater the down payment, the more the seller can contribute.
  • Borrow from an employer-sponsored retirement account.  In many cases, home buyers with 401K or other retirement accounts may be able to borrow against the account balance to help purchase a home.  These are loans – the home buyer signs paperwork agreeing to repay the retirement account.  Different retirement plan managers have different rules, so home buyers should check with their HR departments and retirement plan managers to determine their eligibility.  Buyers can use retirement funds to cover down payment, escrow and loan costs.

  • Obtain a cash gift from a blood relative.  Parents, grandparents, siblings, and other blood relatives are allowed to give cash to help home buyers.  “Give” is the key word because all parties must sign documents stating the funds are a gift and not a loan, so no repayment is expected.  A recent Wall Street Journal article notes that now more first time buyers obtain relative gifts to help buy their homes.  Buyers can use gift funds to cover down payment, escrow and loan costs.
  • Government down payment assistance programs.  These programs are available from many state, county, and city governments.  They often require home ownership education classes and other commitments from home buyers.  These assistance programs may have income requirements.

The good news here is that cash-strapped home buyers can obtain low down payment loans and many can use one of these options to help close their loan.  Do you know someone who wants to buy a Georgia home but has limited cash?  Connect them with me.  We at Dunwoody Mortgage will help them explore all available options to buy a home sooner rather than later.


Low Down Payment / Credit Score Mortgage Options

January 16, 2019


Joe Tyrrell, an executive with mortgage software company Ellie Mae, recently stated, “People still have the misunderstanding that they need a FICO score above 720 and more cash for a down payment, so they don’t apply for loans because they assume they’ll be denied.”  These would be borrowers are self-selecting themselves out of the home buying market based on false assumptions.  So let’s clear up some mortgage myths.

Firstly, borrowers do not a need “great” credit score to win mortgage approval.  Conventional loan guidelines allow credit scores down to 620.  FHA loan guidelines allow credit scores down to 580.  And now non-traditional loans exist that can approve borrowers with scores down to 500 and derogatory credit events (e.g., bankruptcy or foreclosure) in the last two years.  Note that the lower one’s credit score, the higher the interest rate the borrower will face.  But FHA interest rates for lower credit score borrowers are not ridiculously high relative to rates for higher credit score home buyers.


Secondly, winning loan approval does not require home buyers to break their proverbial piggy bank and make a large down payment.  Home buyers can obtain FHA loans with a minimum 3.5% down payment, and they can win conventional loan approval with a 3% down payment.  And if the home buyer qualifies, he / she could obtain a low-interest Home Ready or Home Possible loan with a 3% down payment.  Qualifying military veterans can secure 0% down payment VA loans.  Buyers in rural areas can receive 0% down USDA loans in approved counties.

What may confuse potential home buyers about down payments is the fact that conventional loans require a 20% down payment to avoid mortgage insurance.  But as long as the buyer can win loan approval with the added monthly mortgage insurance expense, the buyer can get their mortgage with a down payment of only 3%.  This 20% down payment myth  requirement is widely held.  Even some financial journalists hold this incorrect notion, as shown by this statement in a recent Wall Street Journal article, “While conventional mortgages can require buyers to put down as much as 20% of the purchase price up front, FHA buyers can pay as little as 3.5%.”  Regardless of what some journalists write, I can help home buyers win conventional loan approval with a down payment as low as 3%!!

Home buyers should remember that they will have to pay closing costs and prepaid escrow in addition to the down payment.  So buyers should plan to invest more cash than just the down payment at closing.  But buyers have options to help with their cash to close needs.  We will explore those options in the next post.

For now, do you have a friend or co-worker who wants to buy a house but is concerned about the down payment or credit score requirements?  Connect them with me and I will help them obtain the best mortgage for their financial situation and home needs.