It feels as if mortgage rates have found a comfortable range to move back-and-forth in, for now. Let’s talk about mortgage rates, how they change, and why I feel as if they’ve “found a range.”
Mortgage rates may change everyday. Sometimes they may change more than once per day. Mortgage rates behave differently then other rates. For example:
the Federal Funds Rate remains static unless it is changed by the Federal Reserve (and wow, it has changed a lot over the past year).
Prime Rate moves based on the Federal Funds Rate. It doesn’t change unless the Feds make a move.
Savings/CD rates typically increase/decrease on the Federal Funds Rate changes too.
From those examples, it is easy to see how the Federal Reserve and their Federal Funds Rates drives a lot of the rates out there (I didn’t even get into credit card and car rates). Mortgage rates move on a daily basis. Their values (up or down) move more like stocks on a day to day basis… some days they go up a bit, then down a bit, and sometimes up and down in the same day.
Mortgage rates move on bond values. As those values change, so do mortgage rates (and as previously stated, change day to day and sometimes more than once a day).
With the knowledge mortgages rates do not behave like other rates and can change often, they usually find a comfortable “range” to float and up and down in until something (economic data, recession, high inflation) moves them out of it.
I feel the mortgage rate range is moving in the low to high 6s… say 6.25-6.75. Why am I making this statement? When mortgage rates went over 7% several months ago, they immediately began to improve. When rates touched a little under 6% not so long ago, they immediately got worse. In both directions, they changed pretty quickly until they feel back into this 6.25-6.75% range and then slowly moved back and forth.
Which puts us… in the 6s for now. If the economy does enter a recession, expect mortgage rates to improve and move under 6%. If inflation jumps back up, expect rates to get into the 7s again. Depending on who you read, there is talk of inflation stagnating/not improving along with many saying a recession is right around the corner. It feels as if a lot can happen in 2023.
So here we are, possibly in the 6.25-6.75% “eye of the economic storm” for 2023.
Based on the amount of calls and emails I’ve received, most of you know mortgage rates moved to historic lows in March. Rates also shot up about a full point during the middle of the month only to gain some ground back the following week.
What we are experiencing as a society with Covid-19 is unbelievable. All of us are being impacted in some way. There is enough commentary out there, so this blog will stick with what it tries to do best – impacts on the mortgage industry. Some of us are sick of the roller coaster ride with the markets.
Can we get off of this ride?!?
Again, it’s no secret rates are better. The mortgage industry is at an unprecedented level of refinancing home loans. This heavy loan volume is causing underwriting times to get longer than normal. Although purchase loans are not impacted as they get special access to an underwriter. Why? Purchase loans involve moving trucks and refinances do not. Purchases get priority.
So what is moving the markets? Well, it is a lot of things actually.
Covid-19: This is the easiest one to focus on because of the disruption to the economy of the world. Bad economic news is usually good news for mortgage rates. This is no exception. Covid-19 pushed stocks off of their all-time highs, and all of this money flowed into bonds pushing mortgage rates lower.
Covid-19 trend before cases in the US: International money flowed into US bonds in late 2019 and early 2020 as from an international stand point, there were fears of an economic slow-down. International investors began buying up our bonds and pushing rates slightly down. So the impact of Covid-19, while dramatic during March, was in play for the past several months.
Oil Wars: Saudi Arabia and Russia took off the gloves and went at each other. Russian didn’t want to cut back production to try and stabilize oil prices. Instead, Russia wants oil prices to go lower to hurt the US Shale industry (which needs higher oil prices to remain profitable). Since Russia decided to not play nice, Saudi Arabia is flooding the market with oil to gain back market share. Oil prices plunged. Part of the 2,000 point drop of the Dow on 3/9 was the start of the oil wars within OPEC.
The Federal Reserve: During the month of March, the Fed cut the Federal Funds rate to zero. With the Feds dramatically lowering rates, many people thought this would directly translate to mortgage rates. So far, it has not. The Federal Funds Rate lowers second mortgages/home equity lines. Mortgages rates are still determined by bond movement. When the Fed lowered rates the first time, mortgage rates actually increased. The second time mortgage rates improved from the previous week. Not because the Fed lowered rates but due to the Fed’s pledge to purchase bonds (specifically mortgage backed security bonds). Mortgage rates improved some after this announcement.
Where are as of this post? Mortgage rates are still low, but not as low as they have been over the past few weeks. Why?
Part of this is bond yields improving from their historic low (making mortgage rates worse).
Another part is rates were at historic lows in March; meaning, there is way more room for rates to get worse than better.
Lastly, the industry is pretty much at capacity and cannot handle more loan volume; meaning, banks are not being as aggressive with mortgage rates as they have more business than they can handle.
Where do we go from here? Who knows! Expect mortgage rates to stay low during market uncertainty, and the market is anything but “stable” right now! I also expect rates will improve back to where they were before the week of March 9th when rates unexpectedly got much worse. Beyond being back to historic low levels, I am not sure rates would improve much more unless things got exceedingly worse with the economy and/or the capacity issue within the mortgage industry subsides.
I am currently advising my clients if they are happy with the rate and the numbers make sense, let’s get going! It is much easier for mortgage rates to get worse than better given where rates currently sit. If unhappy, I am setting target rates to contact clients if/when rates move lower and it makes more sense to refinance.
Looking to refinance while rates are super low? If the home is in the state of Georgia, contact me today. In a short phone call, we can determine if the numbers make sense to refinance today, and if not, set a target rate for when rates improve.
Mortgage rates – already at near historic lows – continue to improve. Current interest rates are basically a full percentage point lower than this time last year. I’ve recently locked clients into rates lower than I’ve ever had the privilege of doing in my entire career as a loan officer.
What factors allow rates to continue improving? One key component is the continuing spread of Coronavirus and the fears related to this public health concern. In times of fear and uncertainty, investors typically move money to less-risky investments. Given the fear and uncertainty related to coronavirus, investors have recently been doing this very thing. Investors have been putting more money into US government bonds. This drives bond prices up and interest rates down. The US 10 Year bond trended upward from August 2019 until December. Since then, the interest rate on this bond has moved consistently downward.
Investors consider mortgage backed securities to have a risk profile similar to US government bonds, so mortgage interest rates have declined along with rates on government bonds. So mortgage rates now sit very close to historic lows.
How long will these low rates last? That requires a crystal ball and I don’t have one. If health officials can control the coronavirus spread and ease public concerns, perhaps rates will start moving higher again. But looming over the entire situation is the 2020 Presidential and Congressional elections, which could bring more uncertainty to offset any positive news on the coronavirus front.
The bottom line is this: Home owners who purchased or refinanced in 2017, 2018, or the first half of 2019 may have a great opportunity now to lower their interest rate by refinancing. And home owners with FHA loans a couple of years old may be able to refi to a conventional loan now and lower or eliminate their mortgage insurance premiums. Some of my clients have lowered their monthly payments by over $200 a month. One even lowered her payment by over $300 a month. Did I just describe you or a friend you know? If yes, call me (or tell your friend to call me) to discuss refinancing now, before rates start increasing. Don’t miss out on potentially large savings.
Welcome to 2018. The year where daily 400 point swings on the Dow became normal. In the words of Théoden, King of Rohan, “How did it come to this?”
There are a few economic events playing into the recent volatility seen on Wall Street. In no particular order:
Stocks are a little more nervous about inflation.
Stocks are unsettled from rumors of trade wars coming with countries imposing tariffs on one another.
Stocks seemingly rebound after big drops because the numbers on the economy itself are still sound.
The Republican tax plan may also be encouraging businesses to spend.
Businesses are expecting more overall to some of the regulations imposed on them.
Those are some good reasons for stocks to be bouncing back and forth – sometimes literally daily swings in the 100s of points.
This being a mortgage blog, our readers want to know how the volatility impacts mortgage rates. Normally, when stocks have a rough day and lose hundreds of points, mortgage rates improve. How have mortgage rates responded over the past 6 weeks?… they’ve been flat.
Mortgage rates haven’t really improved on days stocks tumble, or got worse on days stocks have rebounded. This is a sure sign the market is expecting volatility and not overreacting to a single day. Will this continue? If stocks drop below 20,000, I would expect mortgage rates to improve (and vice versa should stocks get better). For now, rates have held firm and not overreacted to the craziness on Wall Street. The only damage to mortgage rates to this point has been the half point rise to start the year.
Out looking to purchase a home in the spring market? Needing to get prequalified? Contact me today! If in the state of Georgia, we can have you ready to purchase a home in no time!
Mortgage interest rates continue rising. Other recent blog posts have covered the impacts of inflation, the Federal Funds rate, and stock market influences on mortgage rates. Another major influence on mortgage rates is government policy.
In 2008, the Federal Reserve implemented a program called “quantitative easing” (QE). The Fed created money to buy securities like mortgage backed securities and public bonds from banks. This new money increased bank reserves. The idea is that the new cash would motivate banks to lend more money. In buying new assets, stock prices would rise, and interest rates would fall, thus boosting investment further. Given the trillions of dollars of assets purchased, it’s logical to assume that interest rates on all types of debt are lower than they would have been without QE.
The Fed ceased QE security purchases in October 2014. A government policy used to keep rates low ended, and experts wondered if mortgage rates would increase. But rates stayed near their historic lows until November 2016. Rates rose quickly after the election by almost a full percentage point, and then slowly retreated over most of 2017.
In October 2017, the Fed began “normalizing its balance sheet” by selling its securities holdings – selling the bonds purchased in QE. Experts predicted this policy would have the reverse effect of QE:
·Bond price decreases due to increased supply (as the Fed sells its holdings).
·Falling bond prices lead to increases in bond yields, which translates to rising interest rates.
And that appears to be happening. From a lender’s perspective – QE was great. I loved quoting interest rates less than 4%. And now it’s frustrating and stressful to see interest rates rising and continuing higher. But it makes sense given the broader economic and government policy environment.
It is impossible to accurately predict where mortgage rates will go. Sudden changes in government policy, international relations, etc. can cause mortgage rates to change direction. Given that caveat, it appears likely that mortgage rates have truly left the historic low levels of the last few years and will likely not return there anytime soon. I think it is logical to expect rates to continue rising for the short term.
So, if you know someone in Georgia who is considering a home purchase, it may be a good financial move to pull the trigger before rates go much higher. Refer that someone to me and we can explore their loan options together. We at Dunwoody Mortgage offer competitive rates in this changing environment, and as a small company, we can go directly to our executives to work out the best pricing “deal” possible. In addition to competitive rates, we consistently deliver outstanding service to get home buyers to closing on time.
As my colleague recently posted, mortgage rates are off to a rough start this year. As of this post, mortgage rates are a half point higher for the year. I won’t dig into the details of why this is happening. Rodney did a great job of it in his recent post. Today, I’ll focus on what can turn the tide for mortgage rates.
Stocks have suffered a rough start to the new year too. That is normally great news for mortgage rates. Normally as stock prices fall, bond values rise, and mortgage rates improve. The Dow fell over 2,000 points at one moment over the past few weeks, and yet mortgage rates also got worse. If a 2,000 point drop couldn’t help mortgage rates, what can?!?
We must look back at one of the root causes Rodney discussed – inflation. Mortgage rates hate inflation as it eats away at the value of mortgage backed security bonds. As those bond prices fall, mortgage rates rise. The way to help mortgage rates is to combat inflation. The best weapon we have at our disposal is the Federal Funds Rate… the Federal Reserve can continue increasing the Federal Funds Rate. In fact, every time they’ve done that over the past couple of years, mortgage rates have initially improved. Why? The higher the Federal Funds Rate goes, the more it can combat inflation.
Of course, the flip side is raising it too much can cool off the economy (don’t want that). Also, with the new budget deal passed last week by the government, more bonds will be sold to fund the increases to our national budget. More bonds available for sale also lower bond values, pushing mortgage rates higher. As I said in a post late last year, the environment for mortgage rates to get worse is here. That seems to be occurring. While mortgage rates are still low, the time of super low rates could finally be behind us.
The Federal Reserve could increase the Federal Funds Rate to fight inflation and help mortgage rates, but given the other factors at play, the increase to the funds rate may not help improve rates over the long haul for the time being.
If you’ve been sitting on the fence about purchasing a home over the past year because “rates are so low, why hurry,” the time may be now. If you are purchasing in the state of Georgia, contact me. We can get the prequalification process completed in minutes and have you ready to go out and find your new home!
Wow! Our economic world has gone crazy in recent weeks. The Dow Jones average has dropped about 7.9% since its high on January 26, less than 3 weeks ago.
Mortgage interest rates have been changing dramatically too. Rates have increased a half point (0.5%) since January 2. Back in mid-December, I quoted an interest rate to a first-time home buyer named John. Today, in mid-February, I would likely have to charge him 0.625% more than what I quoted in December.
So, what is driving the rapid mortgage rate changes? In short, Wall Street, economic factors, and government policy.
To understand the basics, first realize that the vast majority of conventional mortgages are sold by lenders to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie and Freddie then package these mortgages into mortgage backed securities (MBS). Money managers, pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, etc. buy the MBS to keep in their investment portfolios. They buy and they sell them like other investments.
That means that the same economic factors that influence stock and bond prices – economic productivity, unemployment, inflation, and government policy – all impact mortgage interest rates. And MBS must compete with other investment vehicles such as stocks and bonds to attract investors.
Many experts consider the market for 10 Year Treasuries as a benchmark or comparison for MBS. Both investments offer stable, predictable cash flows. Since January 2, 2018, the 10 Year Treasury rate has increased almost 0.4%. Looks like interest rates on these competing investment vehicles are rising at the same time.
Given recent positive unemployment figures and wage growth, inflation concerns are increasing. Higher inflation expectations tend to drive higher interest rates on Treasuries, bonds, and MBS. Let’s face it, if investors expect inflation to be 3%, they will want to earn more than 3% on their fixed-income investments, right. So as inflation concerns rise, it is logical to expect mortgage interest rates to rise accordingly.
When it comes to mortgage interest rates, there’s much more to consider, and we will delve into more details in future posts. For now, if you know someone in Georgia who is considering a home purchase, please have them contact me. We at Dunwoody Mortgage offer competitive rates in this changing environment, along with outstanding service to get home buyers to closing on time.
All signs are pointing to the Republican party passing tax reform. The Republicans are using the “budge reconciliation” process to get the bill passed. By going this route, the Republicans avoid the need for 60 votes for approval in the Senate while preventing the Democrats the ability to use a filibuster. Whether you opposed tax reform OR couldn’t wait until it arrived, tax reform seems likely to be here once the House and Senate finish reconciling their two tax reform bills.
What does this mean for mortgage rates?
Initially, nothing. On the surface, tax reform has no direct impact on mortgage rates. This is just like when the Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds Rate. The Funds rate impacts second mortgages, car loans, credit card rates, etc., and not mortgage rates. But…. the impact these have on the market can impact mortgage rates.
Stocks have been on a major rally for roughly two years now. The DOW continues to set record highs. Why the surge? Wall Street has bet on tax reform that would benefit business. Trump’s election prompted a big rally back in November 2016, and this rally continued throughout 2017.
Now that tax reform is here, stocks seem poised to continue their good run and maybe continue to push higher. As stock values rise, bond prices normally fall due to the fact that people are putting more money into stocks than bonds. As bond values fall (specifically mortgage backed security bonds), mortgage rates go up. While tax reform doesn’t directly affect mortgages rates, the impact on stocks can influence mortgage rates.
Frequent readers of this blog are aware of how stock prices/mortgage backed security bond prices impact mortgage rates. If you are new to this blog, use this link to read past posts about the subject.
Currently mortgage rates are definitely off of their yearly lows and moving back toward their yearly highs of 2017. Combine tax reform, continued stock market rally, and the Federal Reserve no longer purchasing bonds from quantitative easing (they are beginning to sell their bonds now), and you have an environment where mortgage rates could go noticeably higher.
Market analysts have said for years now (since 2010) that “this is the year mortgage rates go up,” and rates haven’t gone up. When do I think rates will go up? At this point, I’ll believe it when I see it. That said, the environment for mortgage rates to increase is as real as it has ever been in the past several years.
Considering refinancing or buying a home, but been pushing it off since rates are so low? Maybe now is the time to at least have a conversation about your plans, timing, and how to proceed? If the home loan will be in the state of Georgia, I can help! Contact me today and we’ll get started!
One of the Federal Reserve presidents recently said the Fed was halfway home to raising rates. Currently, the rate sits at 1.25%, and the statement implies the target is 2.5%. The San Francisco Fed President feels a rate of 2.5% is the normal target rate for the US economy.
If true, what does that mean for rates, economy, etc.?
One interesting aspect would be the ability of the Fed to help when the economy experiences another downturn – and it will. The economy rises and falls, and it will slow down again at some point. Before 2008, the Federal Funds rate sat at 5.25%. The Fed lowered the rate to virtually zero to help the economy. What happens the next time there is a down turn, and the rate sits at 2.5%? There wouldn’t be as much room to lower the rate to stimulate the economy. Of course, no one expects another down turn like 2008 to happen.
What about mortgage rates? Since the Feds began raising the Federal Funds rate, mortgage rates have improved every time. The only reason rates haven’t set new historic lows is due to the rapid rise of mortgage rates after the 2016 election. In fact, was the dropping of the Federal Funds rate that helped pushed mortgages rate lower. Over the past 5 months, mortgage rates have been flat. As they are near historic lows, there really isn’t that much more room for improvement. That said, more rate hikes could help push them lower as an increasing Federal Funds rate can help mortgage rates improve.
In the end, it will probably be more of the same when it comes to rates… staying low. That has been the Fed’s goal since the 2008 market crash. They’ve achieved this goal by buying bonds and then several rounds of quantitative easing. Now that the economy has improved, the Fed’s attention turns to keeping inflation in check. They do this by increasing the Federal Funds rate, which helps mortgage rates improve (mortgage rates hate inflation). The Fed continues their goal to keep mortgage rates low. When will rates go up? Honestly, at this point, I don’t think anyone knows. I’ll believe it when I see it!
Janet Yellen’s days may be numbered. She is the current head of the Federal Reserve, and her role is up for renewal by President Trump. While he has been coy in the past about his plans to (or not to) replace her, signs are pointing to the fact he might indeed do so.
Trump has made no secret about his desire for low interest rates. This tends to fuel stock values/growth (something President Trump enjoys), but it could cause problems down the road. It also marks a significant shift in the philosophies of our major political parties:
Democrats traditionally want lower rates to encourage job and wage growth.
Republicans tend to want the Federal Funds rate to be higher to fight off inflation.
There is another angle to consider: Ammunition for the Federal Reserve when there is another economic down turn. Lowering the Federal Funds rate is a classic monetary policy employed by the Federal Reserve to help stimulate the economy in times of slow growth/recession. We saw the Federal Reserve lower the funds rate after the “.com” bubble burst, and then raise it as the economy recovered. This repeated after the housing collapse, and the Feds are now raising the rate again to have this as a fallback position for next time (there will be a next time). If rates are kept low, the Feds won’t have this as an option. Japan have kept their “federal funds” equivalent at zero for many, many years with little impact. They recently started a “negative” rate policy that has also shown little results in getting their economy back on track.
It is a delicate balance, and will be interesting to see how it plays out.
The question that most people reading this blog want to know is how will this impact mortgage rates. Mortgage rates tend to work in opposite fashion to the Federal Funds rate.
the Federal Funds rate directly impacts rates on second mortgages, car loans, credit cards.
mortgage rates are determined by the value of mortgage backed security bonds. These bonds (and all bonds) hate inflation. As inflation rises, bond values drop. As bond values go down, mortgage rates go up.
It stands to reason that mortgage rates could improve as the Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funding Rate. That is exactly what has happened as the Fed raised rates. Mortgage rates improved after the Federal Reserve raised rates in December 2015. Mortgage rates skyrocketed after the election (when stock prices went up dramatically). Mortgage rates have improved since the Fed began raising the Federal Funds rate again at the end of 2016 and into 2017 (while stock values have been mostly flat/slightly higher).
It will be fascinating to watch how this unfolds as traditional party philosophies, the economy, monetary policy, and mortgage rates all stand to be impacted by the decision.
Clay Jeffreys is a Mortgage Consultant with Dunwoody Mortgage Services and a writer for “the Mortgage Blog.” If you would like to be a guest writer for "the Mortgage Blog" please contact Clay for details.
busino
clayjeffreys
Rodney
vanpurser
The Mortgage Blog 