Homebuyers Face Less Competition

From my perspective as a mortgage lender, anecdotal evidence shows there is less competition for those homes listed for sale now, relative to the last few years. Buyers now often offer contracts at or slightly below list price, whereas in 2021 and early 2022, buyers had to offer tens of thousands over list price to win the contract. I now see buyers winning some seller contributions to closing costs, and contracts often include reasonable finance and appraisal contingencies to protect the buyers.

But how much less competition is there, really? I found Redfin’s “Compete Score” on their website. This score measures how competitive an area is for home buyers. The Compete Score ranks geographic areas on a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is the most competitive. Redfin calculates the score primarily using four key data points: number of days on market, sale to list ratio, number of competing offers, and waived contingencies. For the Atlanta area, Redfin separates the data further, into “Core City” and “Suburb” components. Let’s look at the data for each, starting with the Core City area.

In February 2020, the Core City area earned a 60 score. This dropped to 55 in 2021, then to 53 in 2022, and down to 52 in February 2023. So, the competitiveness of the Core City housing market has dropped each year, and by 13% over this three-year period.

In February 2020, the suburbs earned a 66 score. This increased to 67 in 2021, then jumped to 73 in February 2022. The Compete Score has dropped all the way back to 57 in February 2023. This is a 14% drop from 2020 and a surprising 22% drop in the last year.

We are left to figure out “whys” behind the data. Why is the Compete Score consistently higher in the suburbs? My first thought is Covid-19. With the 2020 pandemic, more people wanted homes with more yards, more rooms / square footage, etc. Housing is less dense in the suburbs, so it makes sense that more people would want to buy homes in the burbs, thus increasing competition there. Other factors could be the construction of more Core City rental units, making the supply lower and pushing more buyers to the suburbs. Differences in home prices in the Core City vs. suburbs areas could also play a role.

A much easier question is “Why have the Compete Scores dropped in the last year?” The quick answer is mortgage interest rates. Home prices rose significantly in the last few years, and yet people were buying homes as fast as they went on the market. The downward trend of home purchases and those applying for pre-approvals began when mortgage rates jumped. And, wow, have mortgage rates jumped in the last 14 months. These higher interest rates have caused many people to put their home purchase plans on hold, which is driving the lower competition for homes.

That means less competition for those who can and still want to buy a home. And now we can measure that drop in competition. In both Core City and Suburb areas, competition has dropped significantly, in general, in the last 12 months. The drop has been more significant in the Suburbs, but there is still greater competition for homes in the Suburbs than in the Core City areas.

Looking to buy a home in Georgia? Now is a great time to buy – read this post to better understand why. It’s still a seller’s market, though. If you want a lender who has tools to help you win the contract, give me a call, and let’s get you ready to make the most competitive offer possible.