Is a Housing Boom Coming?

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Stephen McBride, a contributor for Forbes magazine, posted an October article titled, “The Biggest Housing Boom In History Has Just Begun.” McBride approaches the subject from an investor perspective, but as someone employed in the home finance world, the article is very relevant to my job.

One of McBride’s sources stated, “The most important driver of home prices is supply and demand.  And right now, there is a chronic undersupply of homes in America.”  Since the late 1950’s, the US has seen an average of 1.5 million homes built annually, according to Census Bureau data.  However, since the Great Recession started in 2008, new home construction has averaged only 900,000 units annually.  That’s a shortfall of 600,000 off the historical annual average for 10 years now.  So we have a cumulative undersupply of 6,000,000 homes relative to historical data.  The article goes on to state, “fewer homes were built in the last decade than any decade since the ’50’s.”

On the demand side, the focus is the Millennial cohort.  The Millennials are the largest generation in American history.  Now the median age of the Millennial cohort is 34.  This historical average age of people buying their first home is 33.  According to the National Association of Realtors, one-third of home buyers are now Millennials.  The article goes on to state that “Every year for the next decade, tens of millions of Millennials will hit home buying age.”

Put these two factors together and you have a tight housing supply coupled with increasing demand.  Supply and demand analysis therefore predicts that home prices will rise.  (This makes me want to buy another house or two!)

I earned my economics degree a long time ago, but the supply and demand basics have not changed.  This appears to be the perfect storm for rising home prices.  And that could mean significant wealth growth for home owners over the next several years.

Want to get into the market now while mortgage rates are near historic lows and before home values start rising quickly again?  Give me a call at Dunwoody Mortgage.  We will get you prequalified quickly and help you close with the best financing for your current situation.  You can buy a home with a minimum 3% to 3.5% down payment and a credit score of 620+.  Now could be the perfect time for you to buy a home.

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